nsucurrent.com May 24, 2018

Province introduces bill to control oil exports

19 April 2018, 06:01 | Violet Powell

Alberta's restriction on crude shipments to impact O&G industry trends

Trudeau under fire as Trans Mountain pipeline opposition grows

A pipeline is pictured at the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Burnaby, B.C., on June 4, 2015.

The most plausible scenario is that the federal government accepts to de-risk the project so the company is not on the hook for further delays from lawsuits and other disruptive tactics, said retired TransCanada Corp. senior executive Dennis McConaghy. The company has since reduced some of those operating costs, but it may want government to provide an indemnity until the major legal issues are resolved, McConaghy said.

Justin Trudeau has said Canada's government is prepared to use taxpayer dollars to push forward plans for controversial Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion.

Just under half (46 per cent) of Canadians say Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not handling the dispute well, compared to 38 per cent saying the same of B.C. Premier John Horgan and 29 per cent of Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. Both could stand in the way of pipeline construction, which is already years behind schedule.

The poll also finds the proportion of Canadians who say the government of British Columbia is wrong to oppose the pipeline has risen significantly - by nine percentage points - since the Angus Reid Institute last asked in February.

Trudeau was in the building but left quickly soon after.

The ownership structure adds to the complexity. At risk is the expansion.

Shares of Kinder Morgan were up 1.6 percent at $16.43 in after-hours trading.

Limiting exports could create shortages in B.C., forcing it to look elsewhere for gasoline. The Saskatchewan government said Tuesday it would pass similar legislation.

If fossil fuel exports are restricted by Alberta it could drastically drive up gas prices in the coastal province.

VICTORIA-British Columbia's attorney general says Alberta's proposed fuel restriction law is a politically motivated "bluff" that will result in an immediate lawsuit from his province and likely lawsuits from oil companies.

The duration of the hit is uncertain. This is a border war more akin to the Balkans than the Canadian Rockies.

The estimate is lower than other experts have estimated, but he said it's high enough that refiners on the U.S. West Coast or possibly even Asia Pacific would be motivated to overcome logistical hurdles and start supplying the market.

Canada is embroiled in an increasingly bitter battle over an oil pipeline.

The industry analysis predicts the embargo could lead to big pain in Alberta because 10 per cent of exports would be halted with nowhere to go.

Products would include natural gas, crude oil, and refined fuels, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Quebec's Liberal government threw its support to Horgan in an opinion piece published last Saturday that said Ottawa would harm federal-provincial relations by making a unilateral decision on the project without B.C.'s blessing.

"We continue to disagree on the question of moving diluted bitumen from Alberta to the Port of Vancouver", Horgan said following the meeting.

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