nsucurrent.com March 17, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

02 March 2018, 03:37 | Ruby West

Weekly April WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

Ironically, the second US shale boom came in the wake of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal masterminded and led by OPEC's Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC's Russian Federation.

As the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries works to trim output, producers are committed to bringing supply and demand into balance, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said yesterday in Abu Dhabi.

ELLIOT WAVE - Suggests that the oil price is now in a corrective B wave rally and thus likely to result in a C wave decline back towards the $58 low and perhaps a little lower.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said early this month that U.S. output would exceed 11 million bpd by late 2018.

The United States will overtake Russian Federation as the world's biggest oil producer by 2019, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday. "The United States will become the No.1 oil producer sometime very soon", he said.

On the demand side, Birol said the IEA expected growth of around 1.4 million bpd in 2018.

Nevertheless, the IEA pointed out that, global oil supply in January edged lower to 97.7 mb/d, but was 1.5 mb/d above past year as rebounding USA production underpinned non-OPEC output growth.

Brent Crude Oil
Weekly April Brent Crude Oil

Cuts by OPEC and its allies may be phased out in 2019 in a way that won't disturb the market, Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih said.

Market participants were expecting a build in U.S. oil stocks of around 2.1 million barrels, according to an S&P Global Platts preview of the EIA oil stocks data. This is higher than Saudi Arabia's current production of just below 10 million bpd. If he speaks with a hawkish tone then the U.S. Dollar could rally.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as USA stockpiles of crude and gasoline increased, putting further pressure on futures after industrial activity in some worldwide major crude-consuming nations has softened. This would likely put pressure on the dollar-denominated crude oil market. This indicates that the yield is higher than that of Saudi Arabia - the world's largest exporter, and a little below that for Russian Federation.

The stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the USA currency more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The International Energy Agency has said improved crude oil output in Nigeria made up for the losses recorded by some OPEC member countries to steady production month-on-month at 32.16 mb/d in January.

Falih stated, "a$3 study is taking place and once we know exactly what balancing the market will entail, we will announce what is the next step".

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