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nsucurrent.com October 23, 2017


Increases in World Oil Supplies Overwhelming Its Cuts

15 June 2017, 01:31 | Ruby West

Oil prices edge up as Saudis limit exports to Asia, US

Oil surges

Global oil output will expand faster than worldwide demand for oil next year, primarily as U.S. producers rack up production, and that could hamper exporters' efforts to prop up prices, the IEA said on Wednesday (Jun 14).

OPEC and 11 rival exporters including Russian Federation have agreed toextend an existing deal to limit supply by 1.8 million bpd toMarch 2018, in order to cut global inventory levels.

The report put the country's oil output growth at 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 and said that production in the Middle East rose by 1.7 million bpd, driven by growth in Iran, Iraq (400,000 bpd) and Saudi Arabia (400,000 bpd).

Earlier in the session, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the country's crude oil inventories fell by 1.7m barrels in the week through 9 June, well shy of analysts' expectations for a decline in the 2.7m to 3.0m-barrel range.

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"The high-price numbers prompted USA refiners to lower nominations", one industry source said. USA light crude CLc1 was at $45.86 per barrel, down 22 cents.

Producers inflated oil stockpiles at the end of last year by ramping up exports just before their agreement started, and demand growth has disappointed so far this year.




USA crude-oil refinery inputs averaged about 17.3 million barrels a day last week, up 29,000 barrels a day than the week before, the EIA reported.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., delivery hub fell by 1.2 million bbl, EIA said.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday it expected growth in non-Opec supply to be higher next year than growth in overall global demand. "But we'll see lower pump prices in the last 100 days of 2017 thanks [in part] to the post Labor Day demand slump". "There is too much oil from the USA, too much oil from Libya, too much oil from Nigeria", said Fereidun Fesharaki, founder and chairman of consulting group FGE, which focuses on oil and gas markets east of the Suez and in Europe and the U.S, reports CNBC. For one, higher-than-expected shale oil production in the United States partly offset Opec and non-Opec production cuts at the beginning of this year.

If OPEC stands pat, putting hope over past experience, then the price of crude (which is down 13 percent since late May) could drop further, perhaps much further.

"Oil has been weighed down by the market's impatience with the generally slow pace of the global inventory drawdown amid a significant recovery in global oil supplies, particularly from the US", OPEC said in its June report today.

Meanwhile, US drilling activity has continued apace, driving up US output by more than 10 per cent since mid-2016 to above 9.3 million bpd.



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